Economic News

American Enterprise Institute’s article outlining a road map to reopening the economy provided concrete steps with cogent measures.

• Phase I: slow the spread of COVID-19 
• Phase II: Individual states can begin to reopen schools and businesses with some physical distancing measures still in place.
• Phase III: Establish Immune protection and lift physical distancing. 
• Phase IV: Rebuild our readiness for the next pandemic.

The S&P provides daily updates and insight to the economic implications as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic. Their estimates state that global GDP will fall 2.4% this year but will rebound to 5.9% next year. As the social distancing continues to flatten the curve globally, the rebound of the global market will heavily rely on health and economic policy, the response of people and firms, and labor-market conditions.

The Economist notes that seventeen of the G20 countries will experience a recession due to COVID-19. This article gives an overview of the impacts of the outbreak to the US, Chinese, Latin American, and eurozone economies, stating recoveries could occur later in the year. However, uncertainty of second and third wave outbreaks could cause debt crises in many countries.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book provides a Summary of US Economic Conditions, including trends in hardest hit geographic areas and sectors.

US Bank provided the following quick summary of the Global Economy and a summary of key intelligence in the Equity, Bond, and Real Asset markets done by its Asset Management Group.

Similarly, Key Bank provides this COVID-19 Market Impact.
 

Employment & Housing News

The US Department of Labor released statistics from March that reflect the decline of workforce in the hardest hit industries during COVID-19, which include hospitality, leisure, health care, professional and business services, retail and construction.

The US Department of Labor also tracks new unemployment claims on a weekly basis, with the most recent reporting available including the week 4/11/2020.

YARDI provides this summary of metropolitan areas and industries that are hardest hit by COVID-19. This includes metro areas that are especially dependent on the hospitality, retail and logging/construction industry. The worst hit areas include places with a Dominium footprint like Orlando, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, Phoenix, Denver among others.

Marcus and Millichap Research Updates include coverage on the global economy, such as drops in the retail and job markets, and the end of the global oil price war, with coronavirus leading to short term drops in oil prices. Here are their reports on Housing:

• Senior Housing Report
• Multifamily Housing Report

The Harvard Joint Council on Housing Studies writes in a second part of a series about the stresses on the housing financial system and public policy solutions currently underway.

The Urban Institute writes on how to avoid a COVID-19 disaster for renters and the housing market and includes a summary of the sectors with the hardest hit renters (including low income hourly workers who are more likely to be laid off), Food and Accommodation, Entertainment, Retail and Transportation. These workers make up 26 percent of the workforce.

Other Interesting & Helpful Resources

McKinsey’s analysts developed a set of scenarios based on three likely paths of the public health response to the virus and three potential levels of effectiveness for governmental economic response. The article and related graphs show that the speed of economic recovery from COVID depends on both how quickly the virus is contained and how effective the government’s economic response is.

 

State-by-State Actions

• Schools: Education Week
• Stay at Home/Shelter in Place: The New York Times
• Construction Limits: Architect Magazine